Match Overview
The 5th round match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification tournament between the national teams of Bulgaria and Spain will take place on September 4 at the “Vasil Levski” stadium in Sofia. This article provides a comprehensive forecast, including odds and statistics, for the Bulgaria – Spain encounter.
Bulgaria Team Analysis
For the Bulgarian national team, the journey in the current World Cup qualifiers is just commencing. Their performance in the previous qualification campaign was modest, as they finished fourth in their group. The team managed to accumulate eight points and scored only six goals, placing them just above Lithuania in the standings. Overall, the Bulgarians have secured only two victories in their last 11 World Cup qualifying matches, alongside three draws and six defeats. It’s important to note that the national team has not qualified for the World Cup in the 21st century.
Bulgaria’s Home Performance Statistics
- The team has won in regular time in 6 of their last 9 home World Cup qualifying matches.
- The national team has conceded no more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 13 home matches in these qualifiers.
- The Bulgarians have found the net in regular time in 7 of their last 9 home World Cup qualifying matches.
Bulgaria’s Provisional Starting Lineup
Dimitar Mitov – Fabian Nürnberger, Anton Nedyalkov, Hristian Petrov, Nikolay Minkov – Ilia Gruev, Ivaylo Chochev, Martin Petkov, Georgi Milanov, Kiril Despodov – Aleksandar Kolev.
Spain Team Analysis
The Spanish team is also just beginning their qualification phase. In the previous qualifiers, the Spaniards confidently topped their group, finishing four points clear of second-placed Sweden. However, in the main tournament, the team exited at the Round of 16 stage after a 0-1 defeat to Morocco. Remarkably, Spain has achieved 14 victories in their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, with only one draw and one loss. Furthermore, in their last four matches in these qualifiers, the team has maintained a perfect defensive record, not conceding a single goal.
Spain’s Away Performance Statistics
- The national team has won in regular time in 7 of their last 8 away World Cup qualifying matches.
- The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 90 minutes in 10 of their last 11 away matches in these qualifiers.
- No more than one goal was scored in the second half in 5 of Spain’s last 7 away World Cup qualifying matches.
Spain’s Provisional Starting Lineup
Unai Simón – Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Pau Cubarsí, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Martín Zubimendi, Rodri Hernández – Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Team News and Injury Updates
Midfielders Gavi and Fabián Ruiz are unavailable for selection due to injuries.
Match Official Details
Srđan Jovanović (Serbia)
Referee Statistics
Matches officiated – 8 (International matches, 2023/24–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellow) – 28;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 18;
Penalties awarded – 25%.
Bulgaria vs Spain Match Prediction
Despite Bulgaria’s generally challenging performances in World Cup qualifiers, they often deliver commendable results on home soil. In their last nine home matches in this qualification campaign, the national team has secured six victories. Two of their three defeats in this period were against formidable opponents – France (0-1) and Italy (0-2). Furthermore, Bulgaria has not lost a home World Cup qualifier by a significant margin since 2005.
The Spanish team consistently achieves success on the road and rarely drops points, except in extraordinary circumstances. However, they seldom manage to establish a dominant lead on the scoreboard. In their previous 11 away World Cup qualifiers, the team claimed nine victories, but only against Liechtenstein did they win by more than a two-goal difference during this period.
Recommended Betting Pick
I anticipate that the hosts will successfully avoid a heavy defeat in this encounter. My prediction: “Bulgaria with a handicap (+2.5)” with odds of 1.75.
Mark Thompson