Paysandu — Novorizontino : Match Preview and Prediction for September 24,2025

Paysandu’s Dire League Position

Currently rooted at the bottom of the table, Paysandu occupies 20th place with a mere 22 points collected from 27 fixtures. Their winless streak has now stretched to a discouraging 10 matches. Statisticians from UFMG have calculated a 96% probability of “Papão” being relegated, painting a truly bleak picture for the club’s future.

Internal Instability Affecting Performance

The club’s internal environment is also far from stable. President Roger Aguilera has confirmed a 20-day delay in player salaries. Goalkeeper Matheus Nogueira openly spoke of “off-field issues” after the match against Goiás. All these factors contribute to a tense atmosphere, which is detrimental to organized defensive play.

Defensive Woes and Key Absences

Paysandu’s defense is a significant concern. The team has conceded 32 goals in 27 games. Compounding this, key defender Talisson is suspended after receiving a red card in the previous fixture. An already vulnerable defense will now face an attacking team from the top-4 without a crucial player.

High-Scoring Home Matches

Despite their struggles, Paysandu’s home games frequently produce high-scoring affairs. Statistics reveal that four of their last seven home matches have seen at least three goals scored. Cornered and desperate, the team is often forced to push forward, take risks, and, in turn, leave themselves exposed defensively.

Novorizontino’s Strong Form and Promotion Hopes

“Novorizontino” occupies a vastly different position in the league standings. The team has re-entered the G4, sitting in 4th place, and is actively contending for promotion to Serie A. Two consecutive victories in recent rounds, including a comeback win against Ferroviária and a home triumph over Athletic, indicate the team is in excellent form.

Potent Attack Posing a Threat

The “Tigers” are known for their attacking prowess. They have netted 30 goals in 27 league matches. Their offensive players, such as Matheus Frizzo (5 goals and 3 assists) and Nathan Fogasa, who is currently in fine form, are capable of troubling any defense, especially the weakened backline of a struggling bottom-placed team.

Defensive Vulnerabilities Away from Home

However, Novorizontino’s defensive performance on the road raises some concerns. The team is among those who have conceded the most goals in their last five away matches, letting in a significant 9 goals. This suggests that even a struggling side like Paysandu will likely find opportunities to score against them.

High-Scoring Away Encounters

A trend of high-scoring away matches is also evident for Novorizontino. In three of their last five road games, three or more goals were scored. The team tends to play open football rather than sitting back defensively, which often leads to both teams finding the back of the net.