Vila Nova — Criciuma : Match Preview and Prediction for October 03,2025

Team’s Current Struggles

Vila Nova is currently in a deep crisis. The team has been winless for seven consecutive matches, recording five draws and two defeats. This prolonged streak led to a change in management, with Humberto Louzer taking the helm for what will be his debut match. The coach himself stated at his first press conference that his primary task is to address the mental and emotional state of the players, directly indicating a dismal atmosphere within the squad.

Recent Match Performance

Let’s examine their last game against Novorizontino, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The statistics from that encounter clearly highlight Vila Nova’s struggles. They managed only 3 shots on goal throughout 90 minutes, with just one on target. Their Expected Goals (xG) metric stood at a meager 0.28, while their opponent accumulated 1.81. Essentially, Vila Nova was fortunate to escape with a draw, having been completely outplayed in every aspect.

League Position and Underlying Issues

The team is languishing in 13th place with 38 points, and mathematical calculations suggest they have a higher probability of relegation than promotion. The club ranks among the league’s lowest for ball possession (45%), total passes, and pass accuracy. Simultaneously, Vila Nova leads the league in the number of fouls committed, pointing to issues with disciplinary conduct and an inability to cope with the opponents’ pace.

Criciúma’s Strong Form

In stark contrast to the hosts, Criciúma appears as a formidable force. The team sits in third place in the table with 49 points, actively vying for direct promotion to Serie A, with an opportunity to temporarily lead the league if they secure a victory. While they did suffer an unexpected home defeat in the last round, losing 4-2 to underdog Paysandu, this result should be seen as an unfortunate aberration. Prior to that, Criciúma boasted an impressive eight-match unbeaten streak, including six wins.

Defensive Prowess and Away Form

Criciúma’s strength lies in its defense. Before the match against Paysandu, the team kept six consecutive clean sheets, and overall, they possess the second-best defense in the league. The “Tigers” are notoriously tough to beat in away fixtures. Statistics confirm this: Criciúma remained undefeated in 11 out of their last 12 away games. This is a powerful argument supporting the likelihood that they will, at the very least, avoid defeat in this upcoming match.

Overall Team Strength and Statistics

Overall seasonal statistics also favor the visitors. They rank third in goals scored, second in assists, and lead the league in aerial duels won. This paints a picture of a balanced and powerful team that surpasses its opponent in almost all aspects of the game. Even the suspension of defender Felipinho is unlikely to pose a critical problem for such a well-organized squad.