Gremio — Sao Paulo : Match Preview and Prediction for October 17,2025
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Grêmio
Mano Menezes
Coach since Apr 21, 2025
Grêmio’s Defensive Crisis
Let’s consider the facts. Grêmio is facing a monumental personnel crisis, particularly in defense. Suspensions have sidelined two crucial defenders – Walter Kannemann and Marlon. Adding to this, injuries have ruled out Fabián Balbuena and starting goalkeeper Tiago Volpi. These aren’t just minor absences; they necessitate a complete overhaul of the defensive line just before the match.Tactical Challenges and Defensive Vulnerabilities
Coach Mano Menezes will be forced to piece together a makeshift defense from available players. This inevitably leads to a lack of cohesion and potential errors. Statistics from the last five games corroborate this: the team has conceded chances with an expected goals (xG) value of 2.28 per match. This is a very high figure, indicating defensive issues even before these recent personnel losses.Offensive Efficiency Amidst Internal Strife
Despite the squad difficulties, the team surprisingly manages to remain effective in attack. In the same five recent fixtures, Grêmio scored eight goals, despite accumulating only 0.82 expected goals (xG) per game. This highlights an exceptionally high conversion rate for their chances. Furthermore, internal problems are adding to the pressure: the situation with forward Kike Oliveira, who was fined for disciplinary breaches and criticizing the coach, creates a tense atmosphere. Such an environment rarely fosters concentration, especially in defense.League Standings
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF-GA
Pts
11
Vasco da Gama-RJ
27
9
6
12
42-41
33
12
Corinthians-SP
27
8
9
10
29-32
33
13
Grêmio
27
8
9
10
28-33
33
14
Atletico Mineiro
26
8
8
10
25-30
32
15
Internacional-RS
27
8
8
11
33-40
32
Copa Sudamericana
Injuries and Suspensions
- Suspension Marlon Key Player D
25 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed - Injury Martin Braithwaite Key Player F35 matches played15 goals scoredSeptember 13 out since5 matches missed
- Injury Tiago Volpi Key Player GK41 matches played2 goals scoredSeptember 25 out since3 matches missed
- Injury Fabián Balbuena Starter D3 matches played1 goal scoredAugust 24 out since7 matches missed
- Injury Gustavo Cuéllar Starter M18 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 21 out since4 matches missed
- Suspension Walter Kannemann Starter D20 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Carlos Vinicius Rotation Player F4 matches played1 goal scoredSeptember 21 out since4 matches missed
- Injury Cristian Olivera Rotation Player F33 matches played5 goals scoredSeptember 28 out since2 matches missed
- Suspension Andre Henrique Rotation Player F28 matches played4 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Willian Rotation Player F3 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 28 out since2 matches missed
- Injury Mathias Villasanti Rotation Player M34 matches played0 goals scoredAugust 17 out since8 matches missed
- Injury João Pedro Rotation Player D21 matches played1 goal scoredSeptember 21 out since4 matches missed
- Injury Miguel Monsalve Reserve Player M28 matches played3 goals scoredJuly 17 out since15 matches missed
- Injury Rodrigo Ely Reserve Player D9 matches played0 goals scoredApril 25 out since30 matches missed
Players Returned to Squad
- Suspension Elysson Starter F29 matches played2 goals scoredOctober 2 out since1 match missed
São Paulo
Hernán Crespo
Coach since Jun 18, 2025
São Paulo’s Midfield Void
São Paulo’s problems are no less significant, also impacting their defensive structure. Key defensive midfielder Damián Bobadilla will not play – he simply hasn’t recovered in time after international matches for Paraguay in Asia. His replacement, Pablo Maia, is serving a suspension. This means the central midfield, responsible for disrupting opponent attacks, is completely depleted.Open Play and Defensive Concerns
Coach Hernán Crespo will have to deploy an experimental lineup in the holding midfield area, which opens a direct route to São Paulo’s goal. The team’s last match before the international break is a prime example. It was a fiery derby against Palmeiras, which ended in a 2-3 defeat. Five goals in one game! São Paulo scored two but conceded three, indicating their propensity for open, high-scoring football with plenty of chances at both ends.High-Scoring Matches Expected
In that encounter against Palmeiras, the team created chances worth 1.86 xG and allowed 1.40 xG. This totals 3.26 expected goals. These figures strongly suggest that São Paulo’s matches are consistently high-scoring. The weakened midfield will only exacerbate this trend.League Standings
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF-GA
Pts
6
Bahia
26
12
7
7
34-30
43
7
Fluminense
26
11
5
10
34-33
38
8
São Paulo
27
10
8
9
31-28
38
9
RB Bragantino
28
10
6
12
34-43
36
10
Ceará
27
9
8
10
26-24
35
Copa Libertadores Qualification
Copa Sudamericana
Injuries and Suspensions
- Injury André Silva Rotation Player F43 matches played14 goals scoredAugust 25 out since8 matches missed
- Suspension Pablo Maia Rotation Player M33 matches played2 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Jonathan Calleri Reserve Player F18 matches played3 goals scoredMay 3 out since30 matches missed
- Injury Ryan Francisco Reserve Player F15 matches played3 goals scoredJuly 12 out since20 matches missed
- Injury Luan Silva Reserve Player M7 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 22 out since4 matches missed
Players Questionable
- Injury Marcos Antônio Rotation Player M34 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Rafael Tolói Rotation Player D3 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 30 out since2 matches missed
Players Returned to Squad
- Injury Nahuel Ferraresi Starter D40 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 11 out since0 matches missed
- Suspension Emiliano Rigoni Rotation Player F5 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 3 out since1 match missed
Mark Thompson
