Gremio — Botafogo : Match Preview and Prediction for September 25,2025

Gremio’s Attacking Woes

Gremio approaches this match facing immense challenges in their attacking line. The team’s primary goalscorer, the Dane Martin Braithwaite, is ruled out for the remainder of the season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. This constitutes a significant loss, as he has contributed 6 goals in the championship.

Extensive Injury List

Further complicating matters is the likely absence of another forward, Carlos Vinícius, who sustained a muscle edema in the last game and whose condition will be assessed on a weekly basis. Beyond these two, the team’s medical bay is filled with key players: defender Fabián Balbuena, midfielder Matías Villasanti, and several other first-team regulars are unavailable to help the squad. The picture is completed by the suspension of Arthur Melo, a pivotal central midfielder, which will severely hamper Gremio’s creative offensive actions.

A Deceptive Derby Victory

Indeed, the team secured a crucial 3-2 victory in the Gre-Nal derby against Internacional. However, the statistics from that encounter are quite telling. Despite scoring three goals, Gremio’s Expected Goals (xG) stood at a mere 0.65, with the team registering only 6 shots on target throughout the entire match. This highlights an anomalous conversion rate rather than systemic attacking prowess.

Consistent Goal Drought and Defensive Trend

If we disregard the emotional derby, Gremio has experienced a goal drought in their preceding matches: a 0-1 defeat to Mirassol, and 1-1 draws with Flamengo and 0-0 with Ceará. Season-long statistics corroborate their attacking difficulties: the team ranks among the lowest in the league for total shots, shots from inside the penalty area, and corners. It’s particularly indicative that Gremio leads the tournament for the fewest home goals scored – just 9 goals in 11 matches. A concrete trend indicates that in 15 of their previous 16 home fixtures, no more than two goals were scored.

Botafogo’s Catastrophic Injury Crisis

While Gremio faces significant personnel challenges, Botafogo is grappling with a veritable apocalypse. The team travels to Porto Alegre missing 13 players! The list of absences affects every line, but the most devastating impact is on their attacking potential.

Depleted Attack and Midfield

Due to injuries and suspensions, head coach Davide Ancelotti will be without a whole host of attacking and midfield players. Forwards Kris Ramos, Gonzalo Mastriani, Arthur Cabral, and Arthur are out. But even more critically, the entire creative core in midfield has been dismantled: Jefferson Savarino and Joaquín Correa are injured, while Santiago Rodríguez and Álvaro Montoro are suspended.

Tactical Adjustments Amidst Chaos

Such massive losses are forcing the coaching staff to implement emergency measures, even changing from their customary 4-2-3-1 tactical setup to a 4-4-2. Evidently, under these conditions, any talk of cohesion or well-rehearsed attacking combinations is simply out of the question. Their last match against Atlético Mineiro, a 1-0 victory, perfectly illustrates Botafogo’s current state: the team created minimal chances, managing only 8 shots on target with an xG of 0.74.

A Resilient Defense

Despite this, Botafogo boasts one of the league’s best defenses, ranking second for the fewest goals conceded (just 17 in 23 games). The team is third in the number of clean sheets. “The Lonely Star” (their nickname) performs particularly strongly in defense away from home. This is supported by overall statistics and a recent trend: in 17 of their last 20 away matches, no more than two goals were scored.