Santos — Gremio : Match Preview and Prediction for October 02,2025

Santos’ Strong Momentum and Defensive Revitalization

Santos is in superb form heading into this fixture, having avoided defeat in their last four outings. The team’s performance has significantly improved since coach Juan Pablo Vojvoda took charge, particularly their defensive solidity. Their defensive efforts have been outstanding, allowing opponents an average of just 0.79 expected goals (xG) per match over the last five games – a season-best for Santos.

Offensive Prowess and Home Advantage

Despite their defensive prowess, the team also demonstrates offensive ambition. In their recent clash against RB Bragantino, they registered 18 shots, with 7 on target, and enjoyed 60% possession. The burgeoning partnership of Argentine players Barreal and Lautaro Diaz is providing increased potency and dynamic options upfront.Vila Belmiro has historically proven to be an impregnable stronghold for Santos when facing Grêmio. Records since 2006 show Santos securing seven victories, seven draws, and suffering only three defeats at this venue. Adding to their strength, key defensive personnel are rejoining the squad. Left-back Escobar is back from suspension, and central defender Adonis Frias is also a potential returnee, promising an even more robust defensive setup.

Grêmio’s Extensive Injury Woes

Grêmio faces this away fixture with significant personnel challenges. Their injury list is extensive, featuring not only squad rotation players but also crucial first-team members. Coach Mano Menezes will be forced to contend without several vital players, including their starting goalkeeper Tiago Volpi, midfielders Cuéllar and Villasanti, and the team’s prolific leading goal-scorer Martin Braithwaite.

An Experimental Lineup and Defensive Vulnerabilities

The casualty list is substantial: Balbuena, Carlos Vinícius, João Lucas, João Pedro, and Monsalve are all sidelined. To make matters worse, Willian has also been ruled out due to a fractured foot. Consequently, Grêmio is expected to field a significantly altered lineup, which will undoubtedly affect their team chemistry and overall performance level.Grêmio’s defensive unit is already a cause for considerable concern. They exhibit significant fragility when defending set-pieces and aerial deliveries, having shipped 14 of their most recent 18 goals through these situations. This vulnerability poses a major challenge, especially given Santos’ strength in aerial duels, as 12 of their 21 goals have originated from high balls or crosses.