Mirassol — Sao Paulo : Match Preview and Prediction for October 20,2025

Mirassol’s Strong Position

Greetings to all Brazilian football enthusiasts! Let’s delve into a match where, in my view, the situation is quite clear. Mirassol currently occupies the fourth spot in the league standings, accumulating 49 points. This gives them an 11-point lead over Sao Paulo.

Home Ground Advantage

A critical factor for Mirassol is their home performance. The “Maians” stadium is truly a fortress. This season, Mirassol remains undefeated on their home turf, boasting an impressive record of 9 wins and 5 draws. This stands as the best home record in the league.

Current Form and Previous Encounters

The team is in excellent form, having secured two consecutive victories, the latest being a convincing 3-1 triumph over Internacional. A look at the statistics from that game reveals their dominance: 55% possession and 13 shots compared to their opponent’s 6. Mirassol controlled the match and deservedly won. Furthermore, it’s worth remembering that Mirassol already defeated Sao Paulo in the first round, securing a 2-0 away victory.

Team News and Key Players

While the team faces some personnel challenges with attacking player Negueba and midfielder Gabriel sidelined, the return of their primary goalkeeper, Walter, after suspension provides a significant boost to their defense. Veteran left-winger Reinaldo is also enjoying his most productive season, having already netted 11 goals.

Sao Paulo’s Current Struggles

What’s happening within the “Tricolor” camp? It’s complete disarray. The team has suffered two recent defeats: 0-2 against Gremio and 2-3 against Palmeiras. Delving deeper, the picture becomes even grimmer – with 6 losses in their last 7 matches.

Extensive Injury List

The primary issue is their overflowing infirmary. Coach Hernan Crespo cannot rely on a significant number of key players: Calleri, Oscar, Andre Silva, Rafael Toloi, Cedric Soares. In the match against Gremio, Wendell also joined the injured list. Crespo himself openly discusses the problems: “Incredible things happen here every day; we constantly have to adapt.”

Offensive Woes

The previous game against Gremio serves as a clear indicator of Sao Paulo’s current state. They maintained 64% possession but managed only one shot on target. They lost 0-2, and their expected goals (xG) statistics were damning, a crushing 0.97 against 2.79. Their attack is simply not functioning.

Limited Reinforcements

Yes, Pablo Maia and Damian Bobadilla are returning to the squad, and Enzo Diaz has recovered. However, these returns don’t resolve the overarching issues. The injury list remains extensive, and the team appears disorganized, lacking a clear tactical identity.