Ceara — Fortaleza-CE : Match Preview and Prediction for November 03,2024

Ceará’s Excellent Form

The team is approaching the season’s main derby in superb form. Their 2-0 victory over Fluminense was more than just three points; it was a clear declaration that Léo Condé’s squad has hit top gear at the most opportune moment. A detailed analysis of that match reveals their complete dominance: 14 shots compared to the opponent’s 5, and an Expected Goals (xG) metric of 1.12 versus 0.28. Ceará fashioned three clear-cut scoring chances while denying Fluminense even a single one.

Squad Status and Key Players

What makes their position even stronger is the current squad situation. The team’s infirmary is completely empty. Their only absence is defender Marlon, due to an accumulation of yellow cards, which is a manageable issue. Key attacking player Pedro Henrique, who experienced some discomfort in the last fixture, is already back training with the main group and is ready to take the field. A nearly optimal lineup and strong home performance are significant advantages for them.

League Standing and Motivation

Ceará currently sits in 12th place with 38 points, and a victory in this derby would virtually secure their spot in Serie A for next year, thereby alleviating any pressure. The team can play with freedom, relying on their inherent strengths. They are not a cornered animal but a confident master of their own destiny, ready to finish off their arch-rivals.

Fortaleza’s Dire Situation

Ceará’s opponent finds itself in a drastically different reality. Martín Palermo’s team is struggling in the relegation zone, occupying 18th place, making every match a desperate fight for survival. Their last game against Santos ended in a 1-1 draw, which did little to improve their league standing. Trailing the safety line by five points compels the team to take risks, but they currently lack the necessary resources to do so.

Critical Squad Issues

The primary concern for Fortaleza is their catastrophic squad situation. Midfielder Pochettino is suspended. The injury list includes a host of key players: goalkeeper João Ricardo, defender Benevenuto, midfielders Rodrigo and Matheus Pereira, and forwards Marinho and Allanzinho. These aren’t just minor absences; they are gaping holes across all lines of the team.

Dismal Head-to-Head Record

Adding to their woes is a dismal head-to-head record. Fortaleza has been unable to defeat Ceará in nine consecutive matches, a streak extending back to April 2023. This season alone, the teams have met four times, resulting in three victories for Ceará and one draw. This is no longer mere coincidence but a clear pattern that exerts significant psychological pressure on the team.