Bahia — Palmeiras : Match Preview and Prediction for September 28,2025

Bahia’s Current Situation and Fan Pressure

The pressure on Bahia is currently immense. The club’s management recently met with representatives of the largest fan group, Bamor, who explicitly demanded immediate results. The goal is clear: direct qualification for the Copa Libertadores, and the fans have made it unequivocally clear that they expect changes starting with the match against Palmeiras.

Recent Form and Referee Controversy

The team has not secured a victory in 4 consecutive Série A matches. Their recent 1-3 defeat to Vasco da Gama was largely influenced by a controversial red card given to key midfielder Jean Lucas in the first half, when Bahia was still leading. Head coach Rogério Ceni openly spoke after the game about biased refereeing and VAR, stating that it was “completely on the side of the hosts.”

Fortress at Home: Bahia’s Home Record

However, at home, Bahia transforms into a completely different side. Let’s look at the statistics: in 11 home matches this season, they have suffered only one defeat. The trend is even more impressive, as Bahia has remained unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 home games. This isn’t a fluke; it’s a consistent pattern.

Historical Advantage and Past Encounters

Furthermore, Arena Fonte Nova has historically been an uncomfortable venue for Palmeiras. In 6 of the last 7 head-to-head matches at this stadium, Bahia has avoided defeat. And in the first leg of the current championship, the Tricolor even managed to beat Palmeiras 1-0 on their home turf in São Paulo. Midfielder Michel Araújo explicitly recalled this in a recent interview, emphasizing the team’s ability to repeat that success.

Palmeiras: Post-Copa Libertadores Fatigue

Palmeiras approaches this match following an incredibly tough battle in the Copa Libertadores against River Plate. Abel Ferreira’s team secured their spot in the semifinals but expended a significant amount of energy, both physical and emotional, on the field. Now, their focus is partially shifted to the upcoming semi-final clashes with Ecuadorian side LDU, scheduled for late October.

Defensive Woes and Key Absences

The main issue for the visitors lies in their defense. Central defender and team captain Gustavo Gómez sustained an eye injury in the game against River and will likely be rested. His replacement, Mikael, is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

Further Defensive Challenges

However, the problems don’t end there. Key right-back Khellven is also questionable due to a foot injury. Consequently, Abel Ferreira will be forced to significantly reconfigure his defensive line, deploying players who lack consistent playing time together.