Bahia — Gremio : Match Preview and Prediction for October 20,2025
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Bahia Team Overview
Bahia’s Home Advantage
The Arena Fonte Nova is the key to this match. At home, Bahia transforms into a formidable force. Looking at the raw statistics: Rogerio Ceni’s team ranks second in the league for home performance, securing 76.9% of their points there. This includes an impressive 9 wins in 13 home matches.
Conquering Top Opponents at Home
Recently, at this very stadium, league leaders Palmeiras and second-place Flamengo both fell. Both left empty-handed, losing 0-1. This underscores the team’s ability to mentally prepare and achieve results against the toughest opponents on their home turf.
Recent Setbacks and Key Returns
Yes, there was a loss in the last round against Vitoria in the Ba-Vi derby. But let’s analyze it. In that match, Bahia played without several key players, including full-back Gilberto and forward Willian Jose, who were serving suspensions. Despite the 2-1 defeat, Ceni’s side maintained 66% possession, indicating control over the game even with a weakened squad.
Reinforcements for the Gremio Match
For the game against Gremio, these players are returning to action. Argentine defender Ramos Mingo has also recovered and is training with the main group. The return of three starting players is a significant boost ahead of this home fixture. Considering Bahia has scored in all 13 home matches this season, their attack becomes even more dangerous with Willian Jose back in the lineup.
League Standings (Bahia)
Bahia: Injuries and Suspensions
- Injury Everton Ribeiro Starting Player MF
53 matches played3 goals scoredOct 6 injured since1 match missed - Injury Luciano Juba Starting Player FW53 matches played6 goals scoredOct 2 injured since2 matches missed
- Injury Cauly Alexandre Rotation Player MF40 matches played1 goal scoredAug 21 injured since13 matches missed
- Injury Erik Pulga Substitute Player FW42 matches played8 goals scoredSept 1 injured since10 matches missed
- Injury Joao Paulo Substitute Player GK0 matches played0 goals scoredSept 11 injured since7 matches missed
Players Questionable for Bahia
- Injury Santiago Ramos Starting Player DF47 matches played0 goals scoredOct 2 injured since2 matches missed
- Injury Erik Substitute Player MF29 matches played7 goals scoredMay 25 injured since30 matches missed
Bahia: Players Returning to Squad
- Suspension Gilberto Rotation Player DF37 matches played1 goal scoredOct 6 suspended since1 match missed
- Suspension Willian Jose Rotation Player FW50 matches played14 goals scoredOct 6 suspended since1 match missed
- Injury Kanu Substitute Player DF16 matches played2 goals scoredOct 17 injured since0 matches missed
Gremio Team Overview
Gremio’s Away Struggles
Gremio approaches this away fixture with significant challenges. Mano Menezes’ team sits in the middle of the table, at 11th place, and looks particularly weak on the road. Their away statistics are dismal: 13th in away performance, with only 3 wins in 14 matches and a negative goal difference of 15-22.
Home Form vs. Away Form Discrepancy
Their recent 2-0 victory over Sao Paulo should not mislead anyone. That was a home game, where Gremio traditionally performs stronger. The picture is entirely different away from home. Historically, Gremio has also not dominated in Salvador: out of 35 matches, Bahia has won 14, while Gremio has won 12.
Significant Player Absences for Gremio
However, Menezes’ biggest headache is player availability. Several key players will miss the trip to Salvador. Midfielder Arthur and forward Alisson sustained injuries in the game against Sao Paulo and did not even travel with the team. Additionally, defensive midfielder Dodi is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Impact of Missing Key Players
The loss of three regular starters, especially in the central midfield and attack, severely impacts the team’s cohesion and attacking prowess. Gremio already struggles in attack, ranking 19th in the league for total shots (10.64 per match) and shots from inside the box. Without Alisson and with midfield adjustments, creating chances will be even more challenging.
League Standings (Gremio)
Gremio: Injuries and Suspensions
- Injury Martin Braithwaite Key Player FW35 matches played15 goals scoredSept 13 injured since6 matches missed
- Injury Fabian Balbuena Starting Player DF3 matches played1 goal scoredAug 24 injured since8 matches missed
- Suspension Dodi Starting Player MF43 matches played1 goal scoredOct 17 suspended since0 matches missed
- Injury Mathias Villasanti Rotation Player MF34 matches played0 goals scoredAug 17 injured since9 matches missed
- Injury Joao Pedro Rotation Player DF21 matches played1 goal scoredSept 21 injured since5 matches missed
Players Questionable for Gremio
- Injury Tiago Volpi Key Player GK41 matches played2 goals scoredSept 25 injured since4 matches missed
- Injury Arthur Melo Starting Player MF6 matches played0 goals scoredOct 17 injured since0 matches missed
- Injury Alisson Starting Player FW30 matches played2 goals scoredOct 17 injured since0 matches missed
- Injury Willian Rotation Player FW3 matches played0 goals scoredSept 28 injured since3 matches missed
- Injury Rodrigo Ely Substitute Player DF9 matches played0 goals scoredApr 28 injured since30 matches missed
- Injury Miguel Monsalve Substitute Player MF28 matches played3 goals scoredJul 17 injured since16 matches missed
Gremio: Players Returning to Squad
- Suspension Marlon Key Player DF25 matches played0 goals scoredOct 5 suspended since1 match missed
- Suspension Walter Kannemann Starting Player DF20 matches played0 goals scoredOct 5 suspended since1 match missed
- Suspension Andre Henrique Rotation Player FW28 matches played4 goals scoredOct 5 suspended since1 match missed
Final Prediction
All indicators point towards the home team. Bahia at home is a fortress, boasting the second-best home record in the league. Ceni’s side has already defeated the first and second-placed teams in the championship at Fonte Nova, confirming their strength in their own stadium. After a derby loss where key players were missing, Gilberto and Willian Jose return to the squad, significantly strengthening both defense and attack.
In contrast, Gremio is facing serious personnel issues, with several important players out due to injury or suspension. Their away form is notably poor, and historical matchups in Salvador haven’t favored them. The attacking struggles of Gremio, already evident, will be exacerbated by the absence of key offensive players. Considering Bahia’s strong home record, returning key players, and Gremio’s significant absences and poor away form, Bahia is well-positioned to secure a victory.
Mark Thompson
