Match Overview and Expectations

The 8th round match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying tournament between the national teams of Lithuania and Poland is scheduled for October 12 at the Darius and Girėnas Stadium in Kaunas. This forecast provides an analysis, odds, and statistics for the Lithuania vs Poland encounter.

Lithuania: Team Performance and Outlook

Current Group Standing

Edgaras Jankauskas’s team has unfortunately lost all theoretical chances of even securing a second-place finish in Group G. In their previous fixture, the team played a commendable match against Finland but ultimately suffered a 1:2 defeat. Following 6 played matches in the current group stage, the Lithuanians are yet to secure a victory, registering 3 draws and 3 losses. Lithuania currently sits in 4th place and cannot climb higher in the standings.

Key Statistics for Lithuania

• The Baltic nation’s winless streak in World Cup qualification extends to 8 matches, comprising 3 draws and 5 losses.
• In their last 10 home matches in World Cup qualifiers, Lithuania has managed only 1 win (2 draws and 7 losses).
• Both teams have scored in 5 of Lithuania’s last 6 home games in this tournament.

Lithuania: Predicted Line-up

Projected Starting XI for Lithuania (5-4-1)

Edvinas Gertmonas – Vilius Armalas, Justas Lasickas, Pijus Širvys, Edvinas Girdvainis, Artemijus Tutyskinas – Gratad Sirgedas, Gvidas Gineitis, Modestas Vorobjovas, Paulius Golubickas – Gytis Paulauskas.

Midfielder Artur Dolzhnikov will be unavailable due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

Poland: Team Form and Qualification Ambitions

Recent Form and Group Position

This week, the Polish national team played a friendly match against New Zealand, securing a narrow 1:0 victory. Last month, the Poles impressed with an away draw against the Netherlands (1:1), and also earned a crucial home win against Finland (3:1). Poland currently occupies 2nd position, trailing the leading Netherlands by 3 points. Should Poland win this fixture, and Finland lose to the Netherlands in another match of the round, Jan Urban’s squad will guarantee themselves at least second place in the quintet.

Key Statistics for Poland

• In their last 13 World Cup qualification matches, Poland has suffered only two defeats (9 wins and 2 draws).
• Exactly two or three goals were scored in 5 of the team’s last 7 matches in this tournament.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Poland’s last 8 away matches in World Cup qualifiers.

Poland: Predicted Line-up

Projected Starting XI for Poland (4-5-1)

Łukasz Skorupski – Matty Cash, Jakub Kiwior, Jan Bednarek, Przemysław Wiśniewski – Sebastian Szymański, Jakub Kamiński, Bartosz Slisz, Nicola Zalewski, Karol Świderski – Robert Lewandowski.

Referee Profile

Match Official: Ondřej Berka (Czech Republic)

Matches officiated – 8 (International matches, 2024–2025);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 40;

Average yellow cards per match – 5;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 24;

Penalties awarded – 13%.

Match Prediction: Lithuania – Poland

Analysis of Team Motivation and Form

Despite their lack of tournament motivation, I believe the hosts of the upcoming match will deliver a respectable performance and attempt to snatch points from the visitors. Lithuania has not secured a single victory in this qualifying cycle, yet it’s worth noting that they are not easily defeated. All three of their losses have been by a minimal margin, with the Lithuanians almost drawing with the Netherlands in their last home game (2:3).

Betting Insight

Poland has failed to win 4 out of their last 7 away matches in World Cup qualification. Furthermore, they have only won by more than one goal on two occasions, against very weak opponents such as Andorra and San Marino. Therefore, I suggest a bet that even if the Baltic team loses, it will be by a minimal margin.

My prediction is: “Lithuania Asian Handicap (+1.5)” with odds of 1.67.