Match Preview

The 8th round match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification tournament between the national teams of Latvia and England will take place on October 14 at the Daugava Stadium in Riga. Here’s a detailed prediction, betting tips, odds, and statistics for Latvia vs England.

Latvia Team Analysis

The Baltic national team has already lost all chances of securing even the second spot in Group K. After six rounds, they have only managed one victory, achieved away against Andorra (1:0). Interestingly, in their last match, the Latvians hosted Andorra at home and not only drew with the underdog but also allowed them to score two goals (2:2). As a result, the team is currently in 4th place, from which it is unlikely to move, and also holds a five-match winless streak in World Cup qualifiers (2 draws and 3 losses).

Latvia’s Qualifying Performance

• In their previous 12 World Cup qualifying matches, Latvia has secured only 2 victories (along with 4 draws and 6 losses).
• Fewer than four goals were scored in 10 out of the last 12 games involving the national team in this tournament.
• At home, the Latvians have been unable to win in World Cup qualification for 6 consecutive matches, recording 2 draws and 4 defeats.

Latvia’s Provisional Starting XI (5-3-2)

Krisjanis Zvedris – Alvis Jaunzems, Daniels Balodis, Vitalijs Jagodinskis, Andrejs Ciganiks, Raivis Jurkovskis – Renars Varslavans, Aleksejs Saveļjevs, Dmitrijs Zelenkovs – Janis Ikaunieks, Vladislavs Gutkovskis.

England Team Analysis

If Thomas Tuchel’s squad secures a victory in this fixture, they will guarantee their participation in the 2026 World Cup ahead of schedule. Currently, the national team confidently leads its quintet, having amassed the maximum possible points after five matches played. It is worth noting that the English side has yet to concede a goal in the current qualification cycle. Last week, the team rested from their group games but played a friendly match against Wales, where they easily defeated the Welsh 3:0.

England’s Qualifying Record

• England’s winning streak in World Cup qualification stands at 7 consecutive matches.
• The team has not conceded in their last 7 games in this tournament.
• In their last nine away qualification matches, the English have secured 8 clean sheet victories and drawn once.

England’s Provisional Starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Jordan Pickford – Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa, Dan Burn, Myles Lewis-Skelly – Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice – Marcus Rashford, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka – Harry Kane.

Team News: Injuries

Midfielders Jude Bellingham and Cole Palmer, as well as defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold and Reece James, will not play due to injuries.

Match Official

Anastasios Sidiropoulos (Greece)

Referee Statistics (International Matches, 2024–2025)

• Matches officiated – 11;
• Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;
• Average yellow cards per match – 4.6;
• Red cards shown – 6;
• Average fouls per match – 25;
• Penalties awarded – 36%.

Latvia vs England Match Prediction

A win is sufficient for the English team in this fixture, even a minimal victory, to secure their direct qualification for the World Cup. I believe this will be the outcome, as under Thomas Tuchel’s leadership in this qualifying round, England primarily focuses on an excellent defensive performance rather than aiming for crushing victories against their opponents. Moreover, with league fixtures approaching this weekend, it’s important for the players to return to their clubs injury-free and in good physical condition.

The Latvians are not adept at playing an attacking style, which was evident in their matches against Andorra. However, they are more effective at defending for the entire match, as the team is generally weak and relies heavily on its defense. In their last 15 home World Cup qualification encounters, Latvia has never lost by a margin of 4 goals or more. It’s also worth noting that England has not won by such a significant margin in 9 of their 14 previous away matches in World Cup qualifiers.

My prediction is “Latvia with a (+3) handicap”.