Match Overview

This eighth-round qualifier for the 2026 FIFA World Cup will see Italy face Israel on October 14 at the Stadio Friuli in Udine. Here’s our comprehensive prediction, betting odds, and statistics for the Italy vs. Israel clash.

Italy: Team Form and Key Stats

Gennaro Gattuso’s squad secured a 3-1 away victory against Estonia in the previous round, marking their fourth consecutive win in this qualifying campaign. Notably, they’ve netted at least two goals in each of these recent victories. However, the Azzurri have conceded 8 goals so far, a defensive record only surpassed by Turkey (9 goals conceded) among teams currently holding second place in their groups. A single point from this upcoming match will be sufficient for Italy to secure at least the second position in the group.

• Italy has avoided defeat in 13 of their last 15 World Cup qualifiers (8 wins, 5 draws).
• The team has opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home matches in this tournament.
• At home, the national team has not conceded more than one goal in their last 13 World Cup qualifying fixtures.

Italy’s Probable Starting XI (3-5-2)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Gianluca Mancini, Riccardo Calafiori, Federico Dimarco – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Andrea Cambiaso, Giacomo Raspadori – Mateo Retegui, Francesco Esposito.

Defender Alessandro Bastoni is suspended. Forward Moise Kean might miss the match due to injury.

Israel: Team Form and Key Stats

The Israeli national team suffered a crushing 0-5 defeat to Norway in their last outing. Ran Ben-Shimon’s side has now lost three matches in this qualifying campaign, matching their number of victories. These inconsistent results have placed the team in a difficult position: they are currently 3 points behind second place, and dropping points in the upcoming fixture will likely extinguish Israel’s hopes of reaching the World Cup finals. It’s also worth noting that their impressive 9-match scoring streak in this tournament was halted by the defeat to Norway.

• Both teams have scored in 8 of Israel’s last 10 World Cup qualifiers.
• The team has not drawn any of its last 13 away matches in World Cup qualifiers (7 wins, 6 losses).
• At least 4 goals have been scored in 8 of Israel’s last away matches in this tournament.

Israel’s Probable Starting XI (4-5-1)

Daniel Peretz – Or Bloorian, Roy Revivo, Idan Nachmias, Eli Dasa – Anan Khalaili, Oscar Gloukh, Eliel Peretz, Mohammed Abu Fani, Manor Solomon – Dan Biton.

Match Official Overview

Clément Turpin (France)

Matches officiated – 22 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 69;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties awarded – 55%.

Italy vs Israel Match Prediction

Israel finds themselves with their backs against the wall. Ran Ben-Shimon’s charges cannot afford to drop points, so the team must push for a win, even away from home against a formidable opponent. They won’t achieve victory without scoring, and the team’s attacking prowess is generally strong: prior to the Norway match, Israel had scored in 9 consecutive World Cup qualifiers, often netting at least twice. However, during that same run, they only kept one clean sheet – against the weakest team in Group I.

From a tournament perspective, Italy is in a more comfortable position. Nevertheless, I’m confident that the team will want to secure at least second place in front of their home supporters. Furthermore, the current Italian side under Gennaro Gattuso is unlikely to play for a draw at home. They’ve secured three consecutive victories, scoring 13 goals in the process. However, they’ve also conceded 5 goals, including one against the modest Estonian team.

In their reverse fixture, these two teams produced an incredibly high-scoring encounter, with a total of 9 goals. I anticipate another goal-filled spectacle here. My prediction: “Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals – Yes” with odds of 2.35

Author: Alexey Tarabrin