Match Overview

The seventh-round fixture in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, pitting Finland against Lithuania, is scheduled for October 9 at Helsinki’s Olympic Stadium. This article provides a comprehensive match preview, including predictions, betting odds, and key statistics for the Finland vs. Lithuania encounter.

Finland Team Analysis

Current Form and Standings

Under the guidance of Jakob Friis, Finland’s national team has seen their prospects for World Cup qualification diminish. Their recent outing saw them suffer a 1-3 defeat away to Poland. This result places the Finns in third position, trailing Poland, who currently hold second place, by three points. An identical points deficit separates them from the table-topping Netherlands, although the Dutch have a game in hand.

Key Statistics for Finland

• Finland’s previous 10 World Cup qualification matches have seen a minimum of two goals scored in 9 of them.
• Across their last 12 home fixtures in this qualification campaign, the national team has managed just three victories, alongside three draws and six defeats.
• Finland has conceded two goals in five of their past seven home World Cup qualifiers.

Finland’s Provisional Lineup (5-3-2)

Jesse Joronen – Jere Uronen, Nikolai Alho, Matti Peltola, Miro Tenho, Ville Koski – Kaan Kairinen, Robin Lod, Adam Marhiev – Joel Pohjanpalo, Oliver Antman.

Lithuania Team Analysis

Current Form and Standings

The Baltic nation’s squad is still seeking their first victory in the ongoing qualification campaign. In September, Edgaras Jankauskas’s side played two home games, securing just one point. They initially drew 1-1 with Malta before falling to a 2-3 defeat against the Netherlands. Consequently, the team occupies the fourth position in Group G, trailing second place by a significant seven points. A loss in this upcoming fixture would mathematically eliminate Lithuania from World Cup contention.

Key Statistics for Lithuania

• Lithuania’s barren run in World Cup qualifiers now stretches to seven matches, comprising three draws and four defeats.
• On the road in this competition, the national team has failed to secure a victory in 14 consecutive outings, recording four draws and ten losses.
• Lithuania has failed to score in their last six away matches during World Cup qualification.

Lithuania’s Provisional Lineup (5-4-1)

Edvinas Gertmonas – Vilius Armalas, Justas Lasickas, Rokas Lekitas, Edvinas Girdvainis, Klaudijus Upstas – Artur Dolznikov, Gvidas Gineitis, Gratas Sirgedas, Domantas Antanavicius – Gytis Paulauskas.

Referee Profile

Stéphanie Frappart (France)

• Matches – 10 (International fixtures, 2023–2025);
• Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
• Average yellow cards per match – 2.3;
• Red cards shown – 1;
• Average fouls per match – 21;
• Penalties awarded – 30%.

Match Prediction: Finland vs Lithuania

Finland’s Home Advantage

The Finnish national team is under pressure to secure a victory in this crucial encounter. Dropping points against an underdog like Lithuania would severely jeopardize their chances of contending for one of the top two positions in the group. Their recent home performance against Poland demonstrated Finland’s capability to challenge for at least second place within their group. The team consistently performs with greater vigor when playing on home soil compared to their away fixtures.

Lithuania’s Struggles

Lithuania was widely regarded as an underdog even before the tournament commenced, and they have yet to produce any significant surprises. Even if they manage to win their final three matches, it’s highly improbable they will secure a top-two finish. The team struggles even against less formidable opponents like Malta. Furthermore, the Baltic squad’s away form is notably poor, having failed to win any of their last 14 World Cup qualification matches on foreign soil. Over the past nine years in this competition, Lithuania has scored a mere single goal across ten away fixtures.

Final Prediction

My prediction is a ‘Finland Clean Sheet Victory’ with odds of 1.98

Author: Oleksandr Oleksenko