Match Overview: Estonia vs Moldova

The 8th round fixture in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers will see Estonia host Moldova on October 14 at the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn. This preview delves into the match’s outlook, offering a prediction, betting insights, and key statistics for the Estonia vs. Moldova encounter.

Estonia’s Campaign So Far

Estonia recently suffered a 1-3 home defeat to Italy, marking their fourth consecutive loss in this qualifying campaign. Jürgen Henn’s squad has conceded three or more goals in all but one of these recent matches. With a 9-point deficit from the second spot, their hopes for World Cup qualification have officially ended. However, it’s worth noting that the Baltic nation has found the back of the net in four of their six qualification games so far.

• At least three goals have been scored in 5 out of Estonia’s last 6 World Cup qualifying matches.
• The national team has lost 7 of their last 8 home matches in this tournament (with 1 win).
• Estonia has conceded goals in 9 of their last 11 home games during World Cup qualification.

Predicted Estonia Lineup (4-5-1)

Karl Hein – Michael Schjønning-Larsen, Maksim Paskotši, Märten Kuusk, Joonas Tamm – Markus Soomets, Rocco Robert Shein, Martin Miller, Mattias Käit, Markus Poom – Rauno Sappinen.

Moldova’s Journey and Recent Struggles

Moldova faced a historic and humiliating 1-11 away loss to Norway in their last outing, a result that stands as their largest ever defeat. This marks their 14th consecutive loss in World Cup qualifiers, with the team failing to score in eight of these matches. Moldova’s chances of progressing to the World Cup finals are now extinguished, trailing their closest rivals by three points. Following this significant setback, a change has occurred on the coaching bench, with Lilian Popescu taking over from Serghei Cleșcenco.

• At least one goal was scored in both halves in 8 of Moldova’s previous World Cup qualifying matches.
• The national team is on a 10-match losing streak away from home in this tournament.
• Moldova has scored in 4 of their last 5 away games in World Cup qualification.

Predicted Moldova Lineup (4-5-1)

Cristian Avram – Oleg Reabciuk, Serghei Platica, Artur Crăciun, Vladislav Baboglo – Alexandru Boiciuc, Vadim Rață, Victor Bogaciuc, Ștefan Bodișteanu, Sergiu Perciun – Vitalie Damașcan.

Match Official: Igor Pajac

Igor Pajac (Croatia)

Matches officiated – 12 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 24;

Penalties awarded – 17%.

Estonia vs Moldova: Final Prediction

With the pressure of qualification lifted, both teams can approach the remaining fixtures with a degree of freedom, focusing on achieving specific objectives. For Estonia, surpassing their previous qualifying cycle’s tally of four points could be a meaningful target, and a victory against Moldova would suffice. While playing at home against stronger opponents is challenging for Estonia, they have shown a consistent ability to score, netting at least once in 7 of their last 9 home matches.

Moldova, on the other hand, will be highly motivated to end their extensive losing streak in World Cup qualifiers. The appointment of a new coach will also likely inspire players to make a strong impression. Notably, Moldova has scored in 4 of their last 5 away games in this tournament, even finding the net against formidable opponents such as Austria, Israel, and Norway.

Given these circumstances, an open and goal-filled contest seems probable. My unique prediction for this match is: “Total Goals Over 2” with current odds of 1.62