Match Overview and Prediction

The highly anticipated 7th-round clash of the 2026 FIFA qualification tournament between the national teams of Estonia and Italy is set to kick off on October 11 at the ‘A. Le Coq Arena’ in Tallinn. This detailed preview covers the match prediction, betting odds, and key statistics for the Estonia vs. Italy encounter.

Estonia’s Current Form

In their last outing, Estonia suffered a comprehensive 0:5 defeat against Italy. This heavy loss marks their seventh in the last eight qualification matches. Alarmingly, the team has conceded goals even in the rare fixture they managed to win during this difficult run. Furthermore, in six of these matches, Estonia’s goal has been breached at least twice. With a meager three points, Jürgen Henn’s squad currently occupies the fourth position in their group.

Estonia’s Key Statistics

• The Estonian national team has conceded goals in the second half in seven of their last qualification matches.
• Playing on home soil in this tournament, the team has lost six out of their last seven encounters, securing only one victory.
• Despite their defensive struggles, Estonia has managed to find the back of the net in six of their previous eight home matches in qualification.

Estonia’s Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Karl Hein – Michael Schønning-Larsen, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Joonas Tamm – Markus Soomets, Rocco Robert Shein, Martin Miller, Mattias Käit, Markus Poom – Rauno Sappinen.

Italy’s Performance Update

Italy has achieved a historic milestone, scoring five goals in two consecutive matches for the first time ever. During the last international break, Gennaro Gattuso’s squad emphatically defeated Estonia with a 5:0 scoreline, followed by a thrilling 5:4 victory over Israel. After an initial setback against Norway at the beginning of the qualifiers, the Azzurri have now secured three consecutive wins, establishing themselves as the primary challengers to the leading Scandinavian team in their group. However, despite their recent goal-scoring prowess (12 goals), Italy still trails Israel (15 goals) in overall attacking output.

Italy’s Key Statistics

• Italy has kept at least one clean sheet in six of their previous qualification matches.
• On the road, the team has remained undefeated in five of their last six away fixtures in this tournament, securing three wins and two draws.
• Impressively, in six of their last eight away matches in qualification, the Italian national team has not conceded more than a single goal.

Italy’s Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Riccardo Calafiori, Federico Dimarco – Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Andrea Cambiaso, Giacomo Raspadori – Mateo Retegui, Moise Kean.

Injury Update

Forwards Mattia Zaccagni and Matteo Politano have withdrawn from the national team squad due to injuries.

Referee Profile

Serdar Gözübüyük (Netherlands)

• Matches Officiated: 5 (International matches, 2025/26 season)
• Yellow Cards Shown (incl. second yellows): 25
• Average Yellow Cards per Match: 5
• Red Cards Shown: 1
• Average Fouls per Match: 31
• Penalties Awarded: 20% of matches

Estonia vs Italy Match Prediction

Overall Match Outlook

The primary intrigue in this fixture will likely revolve around the sheer volume of goals scored, rather than the final outcome. The result itself appears to be a foregone conclusion. Even on their home turf, Estonia has succumbed to defeat in eight of their last ten qualification matches, managing to secure a positive result only against less formidable opponents like Cyprus and Belarus. In stark contrast, Italy is building significant momentum, having clinched three consecutive victories, notably including their dominant triumph over Estonia in the previous round.

Italy’s Attacking Prowess

Italy has already notched up 12 goals in this qualification campaign, just one shy of their total tally from the entire previous qualifiers. Notably, in their first-leg encounter, Italy unleashed a staggering 40 shots on Estonia’s goal. Should Gennaro Gattuso opt against radical tactical changes, it’s highly improbable that his team will ease off the throttle. After all, why would a coach alter a winning formula? Consequently, Estonia’s defense is poised for yet another formidable challenge.

My Betting Pick

My official prediction for this match is a **”Italy Win and Over 2.5 Goals”** combination, with current odds of 1.47.

Author

This prediction was prepared by **Alexey Tarabrin**.