Match Overview

The 8th-round match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification tournament between Croatia and Gibraltar will take place on October 12 at the Varaždin Stadium. Croatia – Gibraltar: prediction and bet, odds, statistics.

Croatia Team Analysis

Last Thursday, the team took another step towards a direct World Cup berth: the national team secured an acceptable goalless draw in an away match against the Czech Republic. Zlatko Dalić’s charges broke a 6-match winning streak in the World Cup qualifiers, but the main thing is that the Croats did not let their competitor move ahead and maintained 1st place in the group with a game in hand. Moreover, their unbeaten run in this tournament continues, as the national team has not lost in 14 consecutive matches (11 wins, 3 draws). 

• Zlatko Dalić’s side kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifying matches.
• At least one team failed to score in 5 of Croatia’s last 7 home games in this tournament.
• The national team’s home scoring streak in World Cup qualification stands at 15 matches.

Croatia’s Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Dominik Livaković – Kristijan Jakić, Marin Pongračić, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Ivan Smolčić – Mario Pašalić, Petar Sučić – Marko Pašalić, Lovro Majer, Martin Baturina – Franjo Ivanović.    

Gibraltar Team Analysis

The national team predictably sits at the bottom of the group table and has no chance of rising above 5th place. Essentially, the only goal for Scott Wiseman’s charges is to finally secure at least 1 point. Each of their last 5 matches in the current qualifying cycle ended in defeat. Furthermore, Gibraltar has lost absolutely all of its previous 25 World Cup qualifying matches in its history. However, it is worth noting that the national team lost by a large margin in only 2 of its last 6 matches in this tournament. 

• Gibraltar scored in 5 of their last 7 away World Cup qualifying matches.
• The team did not lose with a (+4) handicap in 6 of their last 8 away games in this tournament (4 wins, 2 pushes).
• The national team has never scored more than 1 goal per game in World Cup qualifiers.

Gibraltar’s Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Bradley Banda – Ethan Jolley, Paddy McClafferty, Bernardo Lopes, Julian Valarino – Carlos Richards, Graeme Torrilla, Dan Bents, James Scanlon – Tjay De Barr, Dylan Borge. 

Team News

Midfielder Dan Bents has served his suspension.

Referee Profile

Oleksiy Derevinsky (Ukraine)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/2025 – 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellow) – 36;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties – 25%.

Match Prediction: Croatia – Gibraltar

The main question of the match is not about the outcome, but how many goals Croatia will manage to score. Previously, the team has repeatedly thrashed opponents, but in 23 of their last 25 World Cup qualifying games, the national team scored a maximum of 5 goals, and 6 goals or more were strictly seen in away matches. At home in this tournament, the Croats have never broken the 6-goal mark; even 5 goals were scored in only 1 of their last 38 home matches. 

Gibraltar’s Defensive Stand

Gibraltar has long been accustomed to heavy defeats, but despite their level, the team tries to hold their ground and avoid excessively large scorelines. As proof, in 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifying matches, the national team conceded a maximum of 4 goals. A similar trend is observed in away games, where Gibraltarians conceded no more than 5 goals in 6 of their last 8 World Cup qualifying matches. 

Our Prediction

Prediction – “Croatia Individual Total Under 5.5” at odds 1.53